Love the war analogies. A sad but sobering read indeed. I have a film podcast, still buy blurays and frequent my local indie theatre (I'm actually going later today to see Nosferatu). Let's keep the revolution alive!
This is an excellent article on one of the most important issues facing society and democracies worldwide. I'm impressed that you managed to present a complete and cohesive argument without mentioning "AI" even once. Thanks for offering solutions to give us hope.
Especially love ways 3 and 5 - "escaping the algorithm" (and/or using it vs. it using you) and "spread awareness and engage critically", which counteracts the mindlessness of steaming in the background while barely paying attention - something GSP's actually incentivize. Consumers everywhere need to learn and nurture these two skills to take back what control they can. It makes digital viewing a much more rewarding, enrichening experience.
That said, while GSP's have unquestionably disrupted the traditional ways of financing and turning a profit, do we have any numbers in terms of this disruption slowing down indie filmmaking? It seems stronger in recent years than it was just pre-pandemic. I can't even keep up with all the low-budget and micro-budget indie films than dropped in 2023 and 2024, most of them boundary-pushing and thematically challenging.
Great question! I would love to hear some of those low-budget titles you've been hearing about, if you're willing to share them. That way we can look into how they were financed and distributed, and compare that to the pre-pandemic landscape.
Just off the top of my head, not digging too deep into the past year, I'm thinking of:
She is Conann, Sasquatch Sunset, Hundred of Beavers, Riddle of Fire, Rebel Ridge, Sing Sing, The People's Joker, Red Rooms, I Saw the TV Glow, Anora, The Brutalist, The Substance, Life Before Fighting, Terrifier 3 (and really, that whole franchise). And that's just a quick list from 2024!
Great list Dave, and absolutely true that good films are still getting made. Please watch all of these and report back! My concern is that there are fewer of them distributed each year, especially theatrically. From an article posted today by Roy Price: "If you look at American films with budgets between $5 million and $35 million (from Anora to La La Land) that grossed at least $5 million from 2014 to 2024, 460 such films were released. So that’s 42 movies per year. In 2019, the number was 54. In 2023, the number was 35, down 17% from the overall average. In 2024, the number is 31. It will hit 32 when The Brutalist (presumably) passes the $5M mark. So the aggregate number of theatrical films in the category is down. From a genre point of view, it is also more concentrated. Horror in 2019 captured 39% of the US box office in this category. In 2023 it was 44%. In 2024, it was 53%. So if future years are like 2024, then a non-horror film in this category looking to be produced and released theatrically is looking to be one of ~15 films (vs 2019’s 32). 32 feels like a much bigger opportunity to me than 15 – about twice as big, in fact!" Source: https://pricepoint.substack.com/p/the-moderately-budgeted-film
Great column! And truly appreciate you using "GSP" -- it is crucial to use names and phrases that accurately depict what is going on. They are not the cute sounding "streamers". They should be treated like the utility they are -- a platform, and as such, particularly recognizing that they don't share the data, should be prohibited from manufacturing what they are the primary distributor of. I'd also add, that columns like yours are crucial to building the solution -- we have to name all that has been neglected and strategically shut down. We have been living with blinders for far too long. Thank you!
I like this article but I would push back against two points regarding streaming platforms. For one thing, as far as I know, residuals have not been completely replaced by upfront fees. Upfront fees generally replace back-end compensation while residuals remain but are calculated differently than they used to be with other media.
I appreciate you raising these points, Mikhail. Even in cases where residuals have not been entirely wiped out, they have been significantly reduced, as I understand it. While we used to have transparent metrics like Nielsen ratings to fairly determine residuals, there is now an asymmetry where only streaming platforms know their true viewership numbers. Some companies sidestep the obligation to pay residuals by simply deleting entire shows from their services, for which they are rewarded with tax write-downs. However, I have heard that efforts are being made by streamers to develop a better residual payment system, so we’ll see how that evolves.
Regarding your other point, I greatly value Entertainment Strategy Guy’s coverage, but I feel he may be splitting hairs here. According to multiple sources working in writers' rooms today, algorithmically-mined data is driving certain creative decisions. While a human may be making the final call, it is data that are fueling these decisions, and that is concerning to me.
Just because the culture isn't doing what you want it to do doesn't mean that there's a war on culture. This is a stupid article and all the military metaphors in the world will not distract from the "old man yells at a cloud" nature of it. https://marlowe1.substack.com/p/december-2024-movie-reviews
Hey Tim, I love that cat in your profile pic. Doesn’t sound like you read the article too carefully, or maybe I wasn’t clear. Either way, the central concern is the future health of the entire industry, which includes stuff I like and stuff I don’t like. Here’s a non-military metaphor: some years ago, an invasive species called the vampiric sea lamprey found its way up the St. Lawrence into Lake Superior, where it annihilated the native fish by clamping suctioned mouths to their bellies and slurping their guts out. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service created a pesticide to stop the lampreys from killing the entire ecosystem, including themselves. We need a similar intervention, that’s all. Not every concern is entirely rooted in bitter self-interest, believe it or not, and not every concern can be flattened to fit a lazy meme.
cat to cat... Woah! That's really aggressive for someone who is against wars and military metaphors - and (I want to believe) is pro culture... Chill out! We are all here for pretty much the same reason.
Love the war analogies. A sad but sobering read indeed. I have a film podcast, still buy blurays and frequent my local indie theatre (I'm actually going later today to see Nosferatu). Let's keep the revolution alive!
It does feel strangely countercultural to embrace movies (all movies, large and small) and champion the theatrical experience. Viva la revolución!
A timely and vital insight into what is an existential threat for us long-term fans of unique cinema. Thank you for writing this.
Thank you for reading, appreciate it!
Yes mate - this is exactly the kind of thought-provoking stuff I come here to read. Thank you!
Thank YOU, Ed! Means a lot, coming from you.
Brilliant thanks
Thank you, Bod
This is an excellent article on one of the most important issues facing society and democracies worldwide. I'm impressed that you managed to present a complete and cohesive argument without mentioning "AI" even once. Thanks for offering solutions to give us hope.
I tried to write another beachhead in the culture war with this two-part article. https://drewmatic.substack.com/p/how-did-a-55m-joker-beat-a-237m-avatar?r=17iqxr
Especially love ways 3 and 5 - "escaping the algorithm" (and/or using it vs. it using you) and "spread awareness and engage critically", which counteracts the mindlessness of steaming in the background while barely paying attention - something GSP's actually incentivize. Consumers everywhere need to learn and nurture these two skills to take back what control they can. It makes digital viewing a much more rewarding, enrichening experience.
That said, while GSP's have unquestionably disrupted the traditional ways of financing and turning a profit, do we have any numbers in terms of this disruption slowing down indie filmmaking? It seems stronger in recent years than it was just pre-pandemic. I can't even keep up with all the low-budget and micro-budget indie films than dropped in 2023 and 2024, most of them boundary-pushing and thematically challenging.
Great question! I would love to hear some of those low-budget titles you've been hearing about, if you're willing to share them. That way we can look into how they were financed and distributed, and compare that to the pre-pandemic landscape.
Just off the top of my head, not digging too deep into the past year, I'm thinking of:
She is Conann, Sasquatch Sunset, Hundred of Beavers, Riddle of Fire, Rebel Ridge, Sing Sing, The People's Joker, Red Rooms, I Saw the TV Glow, Anora, The Brutalist, The Substance, Life Before Fighting, Terrifier 3 (and really, that whole franchise). And that's just a quick list from 2024!
Great list Dave, and absolutely true that good films are still getting made. Please watch all of these and report back! My concern is that there are fewer of them distributed each year, especially theatrically. From an article posted today by Roy Price: "If you look at American films with budgets between $5 million and $35 million (from Anora to La La Land) that grossed at least $5 million from 2014 to 2024, 460 such films were released. So that’s 42 movies per year. In 2019, the number was 54. In 2023, the number was 35, down 17% from the overall average. In 2024, the number is 31. It will hit 32 when The Brutalist (presumably) passes the $5M mark. So the aggregate number of theatrical films in the category is down. From a genre point of view, it is also more concentrated. Horror in 2019 captured 39% of the US box office in this category. In 2023 it was 44%. In 2024, it was 53%. So if future years are like 2024, then a non-horror film in this category looking to be produced and released theatrically is looking to be one of ~15 films (vs 2019’s 32). 32 feels like a much bigger opportunity to me than 15 – about twice as big, in fact!" Source: https://pricepoint.substack.com/p/the-moderately-budgeted-film
Great column! And truly appreciate you using "GSP" -- it is crucial to use names and phrases that accurately depict what is going on. They are not the cute sounding "streamers". They should be treated like the utility they are -- a platform, and as such, particularly recognizing that they don't share the data, should be prohibited from manufacturing what they are the primary distributor of. I'd also add, that columns like yours are crucial to building the solution -- we have to name all that has been neglected and strategically shut down. We have been living with blinders for far too long. Thank you!
Thank you, Ted! So glad you liked it, I’m honored. Terms matter, as you’ve sharply pointed out many times in Hope For Film.
It’s Ben Stiller.
we need a cultural Dr. Manhattan event
Great write up, DM inbound.
I like this article but I would push back against two points regarding streaming platforms. For one thing, as far as I know, residuals have not been completely replaced by upfront fees. Upfront fees generally replace back-end compensation while residuals remain but are calculated differently than they used to be with other media.
For another, I don't believe data-driven algorithms have that much impact on the creative process. There's a really good article by Entertainment Strategy Guy that talks about how human agency is actually central to creative decision-making on streaming platforms. https://entertainment.substack.com/p/the-algorithm-is-still-a-lie?utm_source=publication-search
I appreciate you raising these points, Mikhail. Even in cases where residuals have not been entirely wiped out, they have been significantly reduced, as I understand it. While we used to have transparent metrics like Nielsen ratings to fairly determine residuals, there is now an asymmetry where only streaming platforms know their true viewership numbers. Some companies sidestep the obligation to pay residuals by simply deleting entire shows from their services, for which they are rewarded with tax write-downs. However, I have heard that efforts are being made by streamers to develop a better residual payment system, so we’ll see how that evolves.
Regarding your other point, I greatly value Entertainment Strategy Guy’s coverage, but I feel he may be splitting hairs here. According to multiple sources working in writers' rooms today, algorithmically-mined data is driving certain creative decisions. While a human may be making the final call, it is data that are fueling these decisions, and that is concerning to me.
Just because the culture isn't doing what you want it to do doesn't mean that there's a war on culture. This is a stupid article and all the military metaphors in the world will not distract from the "old man yells at a cloud" nature of it. https://marlowe1.substack.com/p/december-2024-movie-reviews
Hey Tim, I love that cat in your profile pic. Doesn’t sound like you read the article too carefully, or maybe I wasn’t clear. Either way, the central concern is the future health of the entire industry, which includes stuff I like and stuff I don’t like. Here’s a non-military metaphor: some years ago, an invasive species called the vampiric sea lamprey found its way up the St. Lawrence into Lake Superior, where it annihilated the native fish by clamping suctioned mouths to their bellies and slurping their guts out. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service created a pesticide to stop the lampreys from killing the entire ecosystem, including themselves. We need a similar intervention, that’s all. Not every concern is entirely rooted in bitter self-interest, believe it or not, and not every concern can be flattened to fit a lazy meme.
cat to cat... Woah! That's really aggressive for someone who is against wars and military metaphors - and (I want to believe) is pro culture... Chill out! We are all here for pretty much the same reason.